Forecasting computation details
This part of the user manual describes in detail the underlying fmf_eval library (FAIRMODE Forecast-Evaluation Tool), available as open source at fmf_eval repository hosted by code.europa.eu), that is called by the Delta Tool Online application for calculations and outputs generation.
fmf_eval: FAIRMODE Forecast-Evaluation Tool (Python)- 1. Purpose and scope
- 2. Package layout
- 3. Dependencies
- 4. Inputs
- 5. Measurement uncertainty
U(O) - 6. Aggregations (
aggregations.py) - 7. Indicators (
indicators.py,categorical.py,aqi.py)- 7.1 The persistence ingredients
- 7.2 Modelling Quality Indicator for forecasts (MQIf) — §1.1, Eq. 1
- 7.3 MQOf — §1.1
- 7.4 Modelling Performance Indicators MPI1, MPI2 — §1.2, Eqs. 6, 7
- 7.5 MPC — §1.2
- 7.6 Categorical contingency table — §1.3
- 7.7 The six derived categorical scores — §1.3, Table 2
- 7.8 Threshold sensitivity — §2.4
- 7.9 Persistence-normalised summaries — §2.3
- 7.10 AQI — §1.4
- 8. Pipeline (
pipeline.py) - 9. Diagrams (
plots/)- 9.1 Forecast Target plot (
plots/forecast_target.py) — §2.1, Fig. 2 - 9.2 Forecast MPI plot (
plots/forecast_mpi.py) — §2.2, Fig. 3 - 9.3 Forecast Threshold Performance plots (
plots/forecast_threshold_perf.py) — §2.3, Figs. 4 + 5 - 9.4 POD / SR sensitivity bar plot (
plots/forecast_pod_sr_sensitivity.py) — §2.4, Fig. 6 - 9.5 Forecast Summary Reports (
plots/forecast_summary.py) — §2.5, Figs. 7 + 8 - 9.6 Forecast AQI plot (
plots/forecast_aqi.py) — §2.6, Fig. 9
- 9.1 Forecast Target plot (
- 10. CLI / Spyder workflow
- 11. Outputs
- 12. Tests (
tests/) - 13. Open issues / deferred work
- 14. References
- Conventions cheat-sheet
- Indicators reference
- Plots reading guide
- Contents
- Triage workflow
- forecast_target_FH⟨n⟩.png — Forecast Target plot
- forecast_mpi_FH⟨n⟩.png — Forecast MPI plot
- forecast_threshold_perf_FH⟨n⟩.png — Forecast Threshold Performance plot
- forecast_threshold_perf_norm_FH⟨n⟩.png — Forecast Threshold Normalised Performance plot
- forecast_pod_sr_sensitivity_FH⟨n⟩.png — POD / SR sensitivity bar plot
- forecast_summary_FH⟨n⟩.png — Forecast Summary Report
- forecast_summary_pnorm_FH⟨n⟩.png — Forecast Summary P-Normalised Report
- forecast_aqi_FH⟨n⟩.png — Forecast AQI plot
- Backend differences (matplotlib vs plotly)
- Sample data — demo dataset walkthrough